Talking Points:
- Aussie Dollar Yields Tepid Reaction to Status-Quo RBA Policy Announcement
- Euro Likely to Look Past German Figures Data as ECB Meeting Looms Large
- British Pound May Decline if UK PMI Weighs on BOE Rate Hike Speculation
The Australian Dollar edged higher as the RBA kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2 percent, as expected. The move was relatively modest however, pushing prices toward highs recorded earlier in the session but failing to build substantive momentum thereafter. The currency scored initial gains followingAustralian Current Account and Chinese PMI data and corrected slightly lower amid pre-positioning before the RBA announcement crossed the wires.
The tepid response probably reflects the largely familiar tone of the policy statement accompanying the rate decision. Governor Glenn Stevens maintained that the Bank is in data-dependent mode going forward, repeating the now-familiar refrain that “the outlook for inflation may afford scope for further easing…should that be appropriate.”
Perhaps most interestingly, Stevens noted that “the pace of growth in dwelling prices has moderated” in the boom market of Sydney and Melbourne while remaining subdued elsewhere. He added that “supervisory measures are helping to contain risks that may arise from the housing market”. The buoyant housing market was an important reason to delay easing while macro-prudential efforts took hold. Signs that this may be happening could lower the bar for stimulus expansion in the months ahead.
Looking ahead, German Unemployment figures and the UK Manufacturing PMI report headline the economic calendar. The former data set seems unlikely to inspire a significant response from the Euro as traders look ahead to the ECB policy announcement due later in the week for substantive direction cues. The latter is forecast to show a slowdown in the pace of factory-sector activity. UK news-flow has deteriorated relative to consensus forecasts over the past month, opening the door for a downside surprise that may undercut BOE rate hike bets and weigh on the British Pound.
Losing Money Trading Forex? This Might Be Why.
Asia Session
GMT
|
CCY
|
EVENT
|
ACT
|
EXP
|
PREV
|
21:45
|
Terms of Trade Index (QoQ) (3Q)
|
-3.7%
|
-2.6%
|
1.5%
| |
22:30
|
ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Conf.
|
112.8
|
-
|
114.5
| |
22:30
|
AUD
|
AiG Perf of Mfg Index (Nov)
|
52.5
|
-
|
50.2
|
23:00
|
AUD
|
CoreLogic RP Data House Px (MoM) (Nov)
|
-1.5%
|
-
|
0.2%
|
23:00
|
NZD
|
QV House Prices (YoY) (Nov)
|
15.0%
|
-
|
14.0%
|
23:50
|
Capital Spending (YoY) (3Q)
|
11.2%
|
2.2%
|
5.6%
| |
23:50
|
JPY
|
Capital Spending Ex Software (3Q)
|
11.2%
|
1.7%
|
6.6%
|
23:50
|
JPY
|
Company Profits (3Q)
|
9.0%
|
-
|
23.8%
|
23:50
|
JPY
|
Company Sales (3Q)
|
0.1%
|
-
|
1.1%
|
00:30
|
AUD
|
Net Exports of GDP (3Q)
|
1.5%
|
1.2%
|
-0.6%
|
00:30
|
AUD
|
BoP Current Account Balance (A$) (3Q)
|
-18.1B
|
-16.5B
|
-20.5B
|
00:30
|
AUD
|
Building Approvals (MoM) (Oct)
|
3.9%
|
-2.5%
|
2.3%
|
00:30
|
AUD
|
Building Approvals (YoY) (Oct)
|
12.3%
|
5.7%
|
22.0%
|
01:00
|
CNH
|
Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
|
49.6
|
49.8
|
49.8
|
01:00
|
CNH
|
Non-manufacturing PMI (Nov)
|
53.6
|
-
|
53.1
|
01:35
|
JPY
|
Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg (Nov F)
|
52.6
|
-
|
52.8
|
01:45
|
CNH
|
Caixin China PMI Mfg (Nov)
|
48.6
|
48.3
|
48.3
|
03:30
|
AUD
|
RBA Cash Rate Target (Dec 1)
|
2.0%
|
2.0%
|
2.0%
|
05:00
|
JPY
|
Vehicle Sales (YoY) (Nov)
|
0.3%
|
-
|
0.2%
|
05:30
|
AUD
|
Commodity Index AUD (Nov)
|
75.6
|
-
|
79.1
|
05:30
|
AUD
|
Commodity Index (YoY) (Nov)
|
-22.0%
|
-
|
-19.8%
|
European Session
GMT
|
CCY
|
EVENT
|
EXP
|
PREV
|
IMPACT
|
06:45
|
GDP (QoQ) (3Q)
|
0.2%
|
0.2%
|
Medium
| |
06:45
|
CHF
|
GDP (YoY) (3Q)
|
0.8%
|
1.2%
|
Medium
|
07:00
|
BOE Financial Report, Stress-Test Results
|
-
|
-
|
Medium
| |
08:00
|
GBP
|
BoE Governor Carney Holds Press Conference
|
-
|
-
|
Medium
|
08:15
|
CHF
|
Retail Sales Real (YoY) (Oct)
|
-
|
0.2%
|
Low
|
08:30
|
CHF
|
procure.ch Mfg PMI (Nov)
|
50.8
|
50.7
|
Low
|
08:45
|
Markit/ADACI Italy Mfg PMI (Nov)
|
54.2
|
54.1
|
Low
| |
08:50
|
EUR
|
Markit France Mfg PMI (Nov F)
|
50.8
|
50.8
|
Low
|
08:55
|
EUR
|
German Unemployment Change (Nov)
|
-5k
|
-5k
|
Medium
|
08:55
|
EUR
|
German Unemployment Claims Rate (Nov)
|
6.4%
|
6.4%
|
Medium
|
08:55
|
EUR
|
Markit/BME Germany Mfg PMI (Nov F)
|
52.6
|
52.6
|
Medium
|
09:00
|
EUR
|
Markit Eurozone Mfg PMI (Nov F)
|
52.8
|
52.8
|
Medium
|
09:30
|
GBP
|
Markit UK PMI Mfg SA (Nov)
|
53.6
|
55.5
|
High
|
10:00
|
EUR
|
Eurozone Unemployment Rate (Oct)
|
10.8%
|
10.8%
|
Medium
|
Critical Levels
CCY
|
Supp 3
|
Supp 2
|
Supp 1
|
Pivot Point
|
Res 1
|
Res 2
|
Res 3
|
1.0495
|
1.0534
|
1.055
|
1.0573
|
1.0589
|
1.0612
|
1.0651
| |
1.4890
|
1.4965
|
1.501
|
1.5040
|
1.5085
|
1.5115
|
1.5190
|
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